Flash Gordon Left Me The Keys

STATEMENT BY GEORGE J. TENET

Legitimate questions have arisen about how remarks on alleged Iraqi attempts to obtain uranium in Africa made it into the President's State of the Union speech. Let me be clear about several things right up front. First, CIA approved the President's State of the Union address before it was delivered. Second, I am responsible for the approval process in my Agency. And third, the President had every reason to believe that the text presented to him was sound. These 16 words should never have been included in the text written for the President.

For perspective, a little history is in order.

There was fragmentary intelligence gathered in late 2001 and early 2002 on the allegations of Saddam's efforts to obtain additional raw uranium from Africa, beyond the 550 metric tons already in Iraq. In an effort to inquire about certain reports involving Niger, CIA's counter-proliferation experts, on their own initiative, asked an individual with ties to the region to make a visit to see what he could learn. He reported back to us that one of the former Nigerien officials he met stated that he was unaware of any contract being signed between Niger and rogue states for the sale of uranium during his tenure in office. The same former official also said that in June 1999 a businessman approached him and insisted that the former official meet with an Iraqi delegation to discuss "expanding commercial relations" between Iraq and Niger. The former official interpreted the overture as an attempt to discuss uranium sales. The former officials also offered details regarding Niger's processes for monitoring and transporting uranium that suggested it would be very unlikely that material could be illicitly diverted. There was no mention in the report of forged documents -- or any suggestion of the existence of documents at all.

Because this report, in our view, did not resolve whether Iraq was or was not seeking uranium from abroad, it was given a normal and wide distribution, but we did not brief it to the President, Vice-President or other senior Administration officials. We also had to consider that the former Nigerien officials knew that what they were saying would reach the U.S. government and that this might have influenced what they said.

In the fall of 2002, my Deputy and I briefed hundreds of members of Congress on Iraq. We did not brief the uranium acquisition story.

Also in the fall of 2002, our British colleagues told us they were planning to publish an unclassified dossier that mentioned reports of Iraqi attempts to obtain uranium in Africa. Because we viewed the reporting on such acquisition attempts to be inconclusive, we expressed reservations about its inclusion but our colleagues said they were confident in their reports and left it in their document.

In September and October 2002 before Senate Committees, senior intelligence officials in response to questions told members of Congress that we differed with the British dossier on the reliability of the uranium reporting.

In October, the Intelligence Community (IC) produced a classified, 90 page National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) on Iraq's WMD programs. There is a lengthy section in which most agencies of the Intelligence Community judged that Iraq was reconstituting its nuclear weapons program. Let me emphasize, the NIE's Key Judgments cited six reasons for this assessment; the African uranium issue was not one of them.

But in the interest of completeness, the report contained three paragraphs that discuss Iraq's significant 550-metric ton uranium stockpile and how it could be diverted while under IAEA safeguard. These paragraphs also cited reports that Iraq began "vigorously trying to procure" more uranium from Niger and two other African countries, which would shorten the time Baghdad needed to produce nuclear weapons. The NIE states: "A foreign government service reported that as of early 2001, Niger planned to send several tons of pure "uranium" (probably yellowcake) to Iraq. As of early 2001, Niger and Iraq reportedly were still working out the arrangements for this deal, which could be for up to 500 tons of yellowcake." The Estimate also states: "We do not know the status of this arrangement." With regard to reports that Iraq had sought uranium from two other countries, the Estimate says: "We cannot confirm whether Iraq succeeded in acquiring uranium ore and/or yellowcake from these sources." Much later in the NIE text, in presenting an alternate view on another matter, the State Department's Bureau of Intelligence and Research included a sentence that states: "Finally, the claims of Iraqi pursuit of natural uranium in Africa are, in INR's assessment, highly dubious."

An unclassified CIA White Paper in October made no mention of the issue, again because it was not fundamental to the judgment that Iraq was reconstituting its nuclear weapons program, and because we had questions about some of the reporting. For the same reasons, the subject was not included in many public speeches, Congressional testimony and the Secretary of State's United Nations presentation in early 2003.

The background above makes it even more troubling that the 16 words eventually made it into the State of the Union speech. This was a mistake.

Portions of the State of the Union speech draft came to the CIA for comment shortly before the speech was given. Various parts were shared with cognizant elements of the Agency for review. Although the documents related to the alleged Niger-Iraqi uranium deal had not yet been determined to be forgeries, officials who were reviewing the draft remarks on uranium raised several concerns about the fragmentary nature of the intelligence with National Security Council colleagues. Some of the language was changed. From what we know now, Agency officials in the end concurred that the text in the speech was factually correct -- i.e. that the British government report said that Iraq sought uranium from Africa. This should not have been the test for clearing a Presidential address. This did not rise to the level of certainty which should be required for Presidential speeches, and CIA should have ensured that it was removed.

US Forces Order of Battle - 15 July

This is a "best available" listing of US forces deployed to the Central Command AOR for Southwest Asia and for US forces deployed to European Command's locations in Turkey, Romania and Bulgaria. It does not include forces deployed exclusively for operations in Central Asia though it may at times list units are involved in both Operations Iraqi and Enduring Freedom.

The task of developing a comprehensive listing of US forces present in the area is particularly difficult as forces have been known to rotate in and out of the region in response to heightened operational tempo or exercises. The events of Sept. 11, 2001 and the Global War on Terrorism has made such an effort significantly more difficult as the military seeks to improve operational security and to deceive potential enemies and the media, among others.

Furthermore, the volume of troops moving in and out of the region will surely result in mistakes, misidentifications, or ignorance regarding specific units.

Exluding forces deployed in direct support of Operation Enduring Freedom, there are probably about 212,000 military personnel in the CENTCOM area of responsibility, including about 775 aircraft of all types. The number of troops deployed in the area fluctuates on a daily basis as new forces surge into the region and some units begin to return to the United States.

Ground Forces in the region include a Patriot missile task force with two batteries deployed in Saudi Arabia and two in Kuwait. Virtually all of 3rd Infantry Division, 101st Airborne Division, 4th Infantry Division, 1st Armored Division, 3rd Armored Cavalry Regiment, 2nd Armored Cavalry Regiment, 173rd Airborne Brigade, and an element of the 82nd Airborne Division have been deployed to Iraq. There are a significant number of echelon above division support units in the region. It is believed that the total Army presence in the region is nearly 108,000 soldiers. Army equipment figures are based on standard Tables of Organization and Equipment for the units deployed. The number of Army mechanized equipment actually on the ground is thought to be roughly 814 M1 Abrams and 549 M2 Bradleys. There are 250 AH-64 Apache helicopters in the region.

The US Air Force's Expeditionary Air and Space Force (EAF) concept and organization sets a guideline for Air Force deployments to operational locations. The EAF is comprised of 10 Aerospace Expeditionary Forces (AEF) each with lead combat and support wings including on-call wings that could be deployed if required. Deployments for active duty units lasts roughly 90-days while Reserve and Guard units deploy typically for 30 - 60 days. Generally one AEF is assigned to Operation Southern Watch and one is assigned to Northern Watch. AEF 7 and AEF 8 units deployed beginning in late November and will remain until the end of February 2003.

The EUCOM Area of Responsibility includes approximately 1,700 Air Force personnel at Incrilik AB Turkey, flying Operation Northern Watch patrols (Though there are roughly 4,000 people at Incirlik in general). Prior to Operation Enduring Freedom, approximately 6,200 Air Force personnel were normally stationed in the CENTCOM Area of Responsibility. As many as 23,000 Air Force personnel may be currently stationed in the CENTCOM and EUCOM areas responsible for operations against Iraq, operating a total of about 500 aircraft of all types. It should be noted that tracking personnel numbers for the Air Force is extremely difficult as the actual number of pilots is small compared to support elements. These numbers could be drastically incorrect.

Naval units include a headquarters and shore-based units comprised of about 1,200 people at Manama in Bahrain. Nearly a thousand civilian mariners are associated with Military Sealift Command ships at Diego Garcia. During the 1990s overall Naval force personnel levels in the CENTCOM AOR typically varied between 8,000 and 15,000. Each Carrier Battle Group, with its associated Carrier Air Wing, has approximately 11,000 sailors embarked. As of 02 June 2003 there was one carrier strike group in the area for a total of around 57,000 naval personnel. These units included about 150 helicopters and aircraft. A total of about 449 Vertical Launch System cells are available for Tomahawk cruise missiles, which is roughly three times the average number typically deployed in recent years. Based on estimates of prior deployments, perhaps as many as 250 Tomahawks are actually deployed. The cruise missile force can be augmented significantly within days.

Recent Developments
Army
According to the Atlanta Journal-Constitution on July 15, 2003 the 1st Brigade and 2nd Brigade of the 3rd Infantry Division have their deployments extended indefinitely, despite having received news within the last two weeks that they might begin heading back to Georgia by mid-July. Also according to the ACJ, the deployments have been extended as long as 60 to 120 days. Seeing as how these and other units have had their returns postponed countless times, it is no longer possible to predict with any accuracy how long soldiers from these units might remain in the region nor if current Army predictions are credible.
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution indicates on July 15, 2003 that some 3,700 soldiers from the 3rd Brigade, 3rd Infantry Division have already returned to the United states and that these units have not been effected by the extensions of the other brigades. The Fort Stewart website indicates that HHC of the Brigade, the 1-15th Infantry, 1-30th Infantry, 2-69th Armor, the DIVARTY headquarters, 1-10th Field Artillery, 1-41st Field Artillery, headquarters elements of the Aviation Brigade, 1-3rd Aviation Regiment, 1-3 Air Defense Artillery, 11th Engineer, 317th Engineer, 203rd Support Battalions and the 92nd Chemical Company have either returned or are returning between July 11 and 18.
Elements of the 2nd Brigade, specifically the 1st Battalion, 64th Armor Regiment, are operating in or near Fallujah.
The Associated Press reported on July 14, 2003 that elements of the 2nd Squadron, 3rd Armored Cavalry Regiment would return to Fallujah by August 2003. 1,100 soldiers are in the unit.
Elements of the 3rd Brigade, 1st Armored Division have begun to depart Iraq and return to the United States. According to the Associated Press on July 14 soldiers from the 1-41st Infantry and 2-70th Armor returned to Fort Riley on July 13.
Elements of the 130th Engineer Brigade have been identified as being in Iraq according to an Associated Press article July 14, 2003 that states that a member of the 54th Engineer Battalion was wounded in action. It is not clear when the unit arrived.
The 877th Engineer Battalion has been identified as being in Iraq according to the Associated Press on July 13, 2003. The unit arrived in the region some 6 weeks ago, is located near Mosul, and has some 600 soldiers assigned to it.
The 652nd Engineer Company was identified by the Wisconsin State Journal on July 12, 2003 as being located in Iraq. It is not clear if the unit is there as part of the 397th Engineer Battalion or another unit.
The Wisconson State Journal also indicated that the 1-147th Aviation Battalion was in Kuwait and had conducted operations during the war.
The 478th Civil Affairs Battalion is currently operating in the Horn of Africa region supporting operations in Ethiopia according to Africa News on July 11, 2003.
300 soldiers from the 11th Transportation Battalion returned to Fort Story by July 13, 2003, according to the Daily Press on July 11, 2003. Nearly 250 soldiers are still deployed. According to the story three other battalions from the 7th Transportation Group were also deployed.
100 soldiers from the 144th Transportation Battalion returned to the US on July 12, 2003 according to the Miami Herald on July 11, 2003.
The Miami Herald also indicated that elements of the 124th Infantry Regiment were beginning to return to the United States.
The 346th Psychological Operations Battalion is currently operating in Tikrit according to DoD photo's.
321st Pyschological Operations Company is currently operating in Fallujah, Iraq according to DoD photo's.
351st Pyschological Operations Company is currently operating in Fallujah, Iraq according to DoD photo's.
The 115th Military Police Company is currently operating in Iraq with the 3rd ID. The unit is currently at Falluja, according to DoD photo's.
The 759th Explosive Ordnance Disposal unit is currently in Iraq supporting the 3rd ID, according to recent DoD photo's.
Soldiers from the 422nd Civil Affairs BN are currently operating in Baghdad according to imagery from July 1, 2003.
Soldiers from the 431st Civil Affairs BN are currently operating in Baghdad according to imagery. The unit is in Mosul supporting the 101st Airborne Division.
A Stars and Stripes story on July 15, 2003 indicates that the 10th Mountain Division has some 1,200 soldiers in Northern Iraq and there are some 300 soldiers from the 4th Battalion, 31st Infantry in Djibouti.
Marine Corps
The 6th Motor Transport Battalion, part of the 4th FSSG returned to the United States.
The 1st Reconnaissance Battalion was deployed to Southwest Asia for the war and has since returned to the United States. As more details become available their unt page will reflect the information.